A NATO expert who is warning against Vladimir Putin’s desires to not only reinvigorate the old Soviet Union but take over all of Europe as a modern-day Hitler lays out how Russia’s conquest begins.
It starts with a postwar Ukraine security deal that ultimately renders NATO meaningless, allowing Putin’s Russian expansion to start in Estonia and the Baltics in 2028, “If Russia Wins: A Scenario” author Carlo Masala told Newsweek.
Masala argues, ostensibly, President Donald Trump’s call for Russia and Ukraine to call it “where they are” will mean a weakened Ukrainian army that even Article 5 of NATO cannot save, ultimately giving Putin a path to his European takeover.
“A Russian victory would be Russia gets what it occupies right now, even further, the Ukrainians will have to withdraw from territory they’re currently holding, then Russia wins,” he told Newsweek, pitching his book’s ensuing scenario.
Like the predicate for invading Ukraine’s Russian-speaking south and east, Putin will prey on Russian speaking eastern NATO flanks to spin narratives toward Russian expansion as a just war.
“The Russians would like to have some kind of narrative which justifies their actions in the eyes not only of the Russian population, but also those who are sympathetic to Russia outside Russia,” Masala told Newsweek. “A powerful pretext would be the oppression of Russian-speaking minorities abroad.”
While it would all start in Estonia’s Russian-speaking region, it is not the land of that Baltic state that it wants but momentum for more.
“The attack on the Baltic states has begun,” Masala argues in his book.
“In Estonia, it’s not about a land grab — it’s about testing NATO’s resolve.”
Then a dismantled NATO will permit taking each chess piece in Europe one by one, according to Masala.
“I don’t think that Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Union; what he wants is to dominate Europe as a whole, but definitely the politics and Eastern Europe,” he said.
Masala’s book envisions a post-Ukraine war world where Moscow, emboldened by concessions, targets Estonia’s Russian-speaking border city of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa. His scenario describes Russian troops seizing Narva within hours of a surprise March 2028 assault, aided by disinformation, covert operatives, and diversions along the border.
The scenario also factors in a distracted Washington, shifting attention to the Indo-Pacific, and a divided Europe. Masala warns that Moscow could exploit global crises — including tensions in the South China Sea and a migrant influx into Europe — to set the stage for aggression.
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